The COFFIS Observatory has released its assessment of the 2025 Netherlands Fossil Fuel Subsidy (FFS) Phase-out Plan. Evaluating the framework against the COFFIS Observatory methodology (v0.1p – Alpha), the assessment awards the Dutch plan an overall score of just 11 out of a possible 50 points. The report cites a critical lack of legal force, weak timelines, and a complete absence of safeguards against backtracking, raising concerns over the commitment of the current COFFIS chair.
While the assessment notes that the Netherlands demonstrated transparency by publishing an accessible inventory in both Dutch and English, the core strategy remains highly unambitious. A staggering 87% of the country’s total fossil fuel subsidies currently have no phase-out pathway assigned to them. Under the current trajectory, more than 25 billion EUR in subsidies are projected to still be active in the year 2050.
“The Netherlands’ phase-out plan is fundamentally a non-binding policy declaration that carries zero regulatory teeth, which has already been superseded by policy decisions of the current government coalition” said the COFFIS Observatory. “For a nation holding the co-chair of the COFFIS initiative, this lack of ambition sets a poor example. Prime Minister Jetten launched the coalition in 2023 when he was minister. We expect his government to be a frontrunner. There has been a lot of good work coming from the Netherlands on fossil fuel subsidy reform; it is time to take the next step.”
All COFFIS members pledged to submit yearly fossil fuel subsidy inventories (starting from one year after joining the coalition) and a phase-out plan two years after joining COFFIS.
Key findings from the assessment:
- Availability and Accessibility (7 / 12 Points): The plan is publicly accessible on both the government and COFFIS websites. However, it is a policy document with no legal value, reiterating information from the Budget Memorandum (Milijoennota), which itself lacks regulatory force.
- Completeness of the Plan (6 / 15 Points): While all inventoried subsidies feature a corresponding action, only 13% of total subsidies are slated for a phase-out. When excluding subsidies tied by international legal constraints, that number drops to just 7%. No deadline for a full phase-out is established.
- Acceptability of the Plan (0 / 7 Points): The plan fails entirely to address the socio-economic impacts of reform. It provides no data on stakeholder consultations, no support schemes for vulnerable sectors or households, and no public communication strategy.
- Monitoring and Evaluation (0 / 8 Points): The submission contains no provisions for institutional monitoring, oversight, or periodic implementation assessments.
- Standstill Policy (-2 / 8 Points): The plan lacks a ban on new fossil fuel subsidies, earning a penalty score for failing to include provisions that prevent policy backtracking.
The assessment also challenges specific economic justifications used by the Dutch government. For instance, the plan maintains an “investment deduction for the exploration and production of natural gas from small fields in the North Sea,” claiming that removing the scheme would increase emissions and energy dependency. The COFFIS Observatory highlights that this, among other things, directly contradicts the analysis by the International Energy Agency (IEA) stating that no new oil and gas fields are needed for a Paris-aligned climate pathway.
Looking ahead to COP31
The critique of the Dutch plan comes amid broader implementation delays across the alliance. Twelve out of 17 COFFIS members have so far missed their deadlines to submit formal phase-out plans. Colombia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom are expected to release their fossil fuel subsidy phase-out plans by COP31.
To support its members in developing more resilient frameworks, the COFFIS Secretariat is actively preparing guidance for the development of phase-out plans. The COFFIS Observatory looks forward to continuing cooperation with the COFFIS Secretariat and the COFFIS co-chairs to ensure that the next phase-out plans are aligned with the ambitions of the coalition.
An assessment summary note with recommendations is available here.
The full assessment can be downloaded here.
A dashboard to explore the fossil fuel subsidy phase-out data is accessible here.
The COFFIS Observatory welcomes comments and feedback on the phase-out assessment methodology. Email: coffisobservatory@stopfossilsubsidies.com
